Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43264a22ef54ba5a22e8d2addaf896ec15d65f29fc813b16ed2899f9fe81a638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 80,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…b05cbacked Yes | 54c | 34,543$18,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,653.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…1033backed No | 46c | 34,543$15,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,653.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…651ebacked Yes | 55c | 26,463$14,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,554.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…c267backed No | 45c | 26,463$11,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,554.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…77ddbacked Yes | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 47c | 67.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…deccbacked No | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…873ebacked No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 42c | 29.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…81e0backed Yes | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…5c8abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 75c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?this page
- Will Arsenal qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Aston Villa qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Chelsea qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Newcastle qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.