Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b15870c1a9606a54f34723b532143c54be8d5170849ff7a6b57ca7467d74c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5d5…54c7backed Yes | 60c | 1,728$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 40c | 1,172$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Yes | 58c | 668$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 41c | 518.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 41c | 271.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…3db9backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 67c | 163.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…6f50backed No | 15c | 142.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…f733backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…a081backed No | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14df…b23dbacked Yes | 58c | 46.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…ac3ebacked Yes | 60c | 37.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 43c | 27.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…bafebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?this page
- Will Arsenal qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Aston Villa qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Manchester United qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Newcastle qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.