Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b9b3e0e4421f7bfdfb56486cb7695c40223e15afce57c52f255502a95b07b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed 100 Thieves | 70c | 3,580$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.23 | 524 | 55.2%289 W · 235 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Evil Geniuses | 30c | 1,654$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.25 | 660 | 59.5%393 W · 267 L | +51.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Evil Geniuses | 29c | 1,526$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.78 | 687 | 58.4%401 W · 286 L | +56.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Evil Geniuses | 30c | 1,018$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 536 | 59.1%317 W · 219 L | +41.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 487.18$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 262 | 49.6%130 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Evil Geniuses | 30c | 319.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 545 | 55.4%302 W · 243 L | +24.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Evil Geniuses | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -10.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed 100 Thieves | 70c | 275.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…4144backed 100 Thieves | 71c | 261.07$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…6d74backed 100 Thieves | 70c | 206.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…563ebacked Evil Geniuses | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 186.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 444 | 59.5%264 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Evil Geniuses | 28c | 163.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 194 | 43.8%85 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked 100 Thieves | 70c | 147.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Evil Geniuses | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 100 Thieves | 72c | 69.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…02a4backed 100 Thieves | 72c | 63.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 60.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…7e22backed Evil Geniuses | 32c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Evil Geniuses | 33c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked 100 Thieves | 70c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.