Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b68a980c87106b892fdb957f03237b8fcebe4e8a68a35d84eeeb61915e741a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Evil Geniuses | 55c | 377.07$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed 100 Thieves | 43c | 333.55$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed 100 Thieves | 49c | 244.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd6bbacked Evil Geniuses | 60c | 174.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Evil Geniuses | 58c | 169.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked 100 Thieves | 49c | 131.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 267 | 58.8%157 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed 100 Thieves | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed 100 Thieves | 46c | 79.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Evil Geniuses | 58c | 75.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…6d74backed 100 Thieves | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Evil Geniuses | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed Evil Geniuses | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)this page
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.