MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51be26dabfd8d1767e0158963bfc7e83675d719469b03bd8886d19b2c1d8c851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 6,862$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,883.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 6,078$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 5,348$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 63c | 5,159$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 4,130$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 32c | 1,222$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 9c | 1,150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.49 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 7c | 900$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 12c | 879.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.46 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 9c | 807.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.15 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 17c | 725$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.5 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 37c | 708$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 14c | 500$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 473.91$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 324.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.74 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 242$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 23c | 191.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 22c | 186.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 76c | 163.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 14c | 157.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 41c | 146.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 77c | 141.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 41c | 119.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 100.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 99.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 21c | 94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 35c | 93.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 79.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 72c | 69.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 79c | 48.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 55c | 35.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 56c | 33.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 42c | 33.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…c024backed Over | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 43c | 28.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 44c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…9266backed Over | 42c | 25.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.