MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b74d12c1bf55cd7dbb5a21187847106f63e16473e65f8b1145382b962dff1bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 18,768$13,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,667.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 10,031$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 3,605$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 2,450$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.05 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 1,389$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 1,127$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 282.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 259.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 241.74$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 232.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 226$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 216.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 193.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 177.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 159.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 151.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 146.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 146.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 130.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 108.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 108.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 100.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 84.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 82.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 79.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 75.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 70.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 66.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Atlanta Braves | 75c | 62.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Chicago Cubs | 24c | 61.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 55.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 54.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 49.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 48.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 43.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 36.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 31.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 27.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.