Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51eae3a54e2106d713d7f94f6eb7f084ff191982a081e3cbe5aff86f2a0164f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 276.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 224.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 76c | 183.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 159.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 147.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 108.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 101.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa4…50bebacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 95.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 84.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 72.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 64.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 58.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 55.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 24c | 52.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 58c | 49.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 47.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 61c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 61c | 45.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 43.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 70c | 40.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked Yes | 39c | 38.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 37.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 37.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 37.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked Yes | 40c | 30.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 69c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 30.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 29.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f1…adbebacked Yes | 60c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 73c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked Yes | 40c | 26.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 62c | 22.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 59c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 72c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.