Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9d1517ab4a1d642c48ea90481ddd77acdc1bbf43617bc12c3939545420728d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 66c | 479.08$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 77c | 427.01$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 9c | 389.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 331.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 182.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 15c | 177.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 170.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 160.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 156.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 147.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 146.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 134.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 106.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 102.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa4…50bebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 73.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 70c | 67.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 65.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 38c | 59.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 57.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 40c | 55.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 29c | 49.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 48.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 46.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 76c | 45.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 66c | 39.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 51c | 39.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 38.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 80c | 37.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…5973backed No | 72c | 37.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 33c | 33.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 45c | 32.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 31.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 74c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f1…adbebacked Yes | 52c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 20.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 16.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.