South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fe04b41974598dd95926723740abadb9ba56bd4960cff421de609a96b31cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 3,050$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 2,732$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Yes | 24c | 2,229$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 1,165$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 965$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 658$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 78c | 483$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 24c | 468$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 41c | 406.69$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 24c | 359.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Yes | 16c | 268.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 187.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 169$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…df3cbacked Yes | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 117.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 57c | 83.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 38c | 59.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 79c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 23c | 47.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 25c | 41.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…f100backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd699…3f8abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 79c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…e3d9backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…3b1bbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?No won
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.