South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f3deb5248ae394d60cb1b5355c2de31a84cd6aa06ea8ba789ec7ab6171544a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 52c | 19,750$10,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,480 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 61c | 10,919$6,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,639.11 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…7192backed Yes | 50c | 10,165$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,082.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…b742backed No | 50c | 9,977$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Yes | 52c | 5,227$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 49c | 5,021$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 5,020$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 48c | 3,026$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.96 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 42c | 2,134$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.83 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 1,006$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.88 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 51c | 880$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 48c | 861$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.86 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed No | 45c | 750$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 51c | 626$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.93 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 580.4$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.17 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 43c | 543.67$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.25 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 528.66$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 54c | 358.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.86 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 28c | 357.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 39c | 355.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 55c | 343.84$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 45c | 249.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 34c | 220.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 56c | 201.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 43c | 199.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 51c | 140.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 55c | 123.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 13c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 49c | 91.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed Yes | 49c | 80.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 26c | 65.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 48c | 62.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 46c | 60.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 60.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 50c | 55.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…eadbbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 49c | 52.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…b05ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 45c | 39.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…3b1bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…139ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…c007backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…f100backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed No | 52c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…0ce4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?No won
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.