South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778de6b221d81800eebd9d3d2094e8326b878d604d5bb6b0423a0034883454e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 5,817$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 4,503$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 51c | 1,354$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.34 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 60c | 1,325$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.95 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a3…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 77c | 805.38$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 771.8$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 479.11$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 476.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb604…b046backed Yes | 26c | 384.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 19c | 320.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 11c | 172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 168.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 162.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 128 | 64.8%83 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 50c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…105bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 51c | 26.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…f100backed No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.