MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fe93ea2042f2818ae323370b03855dd7837b60685b58019e9b10df268af705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof New York Mets, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,547 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Houston Astros | 54c | 6,775$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed New York Mets | 0c | 3,692$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 47c | 3,265$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.91 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 63c | 2,514$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 46c | 2,212$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.52 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed New York Mets | 38c | 1,135$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.42 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked New York Mets | 46c | 999.69$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.82 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed New York Mets | 46c | 900$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed New York Mets | 46c | 548.63$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.37 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 512$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.41 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 38c | 456.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed New York Mets | 36c | 317.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked New York Mets | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed New York Mets | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Houston Astros | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed New York Mets | 40c | 258.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 53c | 256.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.63 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Houston Astros | 52c | 205.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Houston Astros | 53c | 166$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 38c | 165.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 52c | 161$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 67c | 151.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed New York Mets | 46c | 121.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 33c | 120.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked New York Mets | 45c | 111.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked New York Mets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked New York Mets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed New York Mets | 40c | 78.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 70.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed New York Mets | 27c | 61.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Houston Astros | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Houston Astros | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Houston Astros | 62c | 55.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked New York Mets | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed New York Mets | 43c | 43.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 35c | 43.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed New York Mets | 46c | 41.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed New York Mets | 37c | 38.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed New York Mets | 31c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Houston Astros | 53c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Houston Astros | 76c | 37.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Houston Astros | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 35.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed New York Mets | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Houston Astros | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked New York Mets | 47c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Houston Astros | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…5a92backed Houston Astros | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Houston Astros | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.