Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521062c685cf566154e914264e96071ae9f4e6eb24449d07ca6eb959c6bb02fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 968.89$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 69c | 269.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 200.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 191.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 166.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 70c | 147.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 134.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 131.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 112.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 64c | 109.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 24c | 103.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 67c | 95.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 69c | 84.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 36c | 80.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 69.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 68.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 65.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 36c | 49.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 37c | 41.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 28c | 38.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 35.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 34.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 32.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 19.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.