Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbabbf9a445b0aee25f0d9144d224ff64d6c124939aad5493fe766aab355fed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 900$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 800.75$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 3c | 353.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 198.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 59c | 162.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 147.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 142.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 135.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 112.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 51c | 107.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 53c | 101.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 96.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 75.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 73.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 67c | 70.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 52c | 67.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 53c | 65.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 46c | 65.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 60.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 47c | 54.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 51c | 50.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 40.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 39.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 67c | 35.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 35.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 33.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 28.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 60c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.