MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5213dedbb5cf2e3125d4c7b139492f1ebc5a3f92cb8408c11fd81d62c3c1513c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 20,008$8,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,403.15 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked New York Yankees | 58c | 11,728$6,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,913.34 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed New York Yankees | 59c | 9,389$5,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.47 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Yankees | 58c | 4,824$2,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.02 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 4,236$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.61 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked New York Yankees | 63c | 3,020$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 2,890$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.9 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 1,906$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…651abacked New York Yankees | 59c | 1,645$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 1,595$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.15 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Yankees | 59c | 1,367$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.86 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 950$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 851.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.14 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed New York Yankees | 58c | 518.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.91 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed New York Yankees | 60c | 288$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Yankees | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 199.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…72a3backed New York Yankees | 49c | 143.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 114.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Kansas City Royals | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Yankees | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Yankees | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Yankees | 58c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed New York Yankees | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.