Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5236a0375b2b67a82821caf79b0e48cee93c0f632787686b279711b0f4ed6e42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 4c | 322.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 295.49$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 50c | 263.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 74c | 205.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 202.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 59c | 172.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 70c | 161.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 155.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 134.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 126.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 91.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 65c | 75.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 63.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 39c | 60.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 60.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 65c | 48.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 44.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 64c | 44.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 45c | 42.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 57c | 37.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 43c | 29.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 27.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 26.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 71c | 25.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 68c | 24.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 23.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.