Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524e69b312ac9010ed88001b0f450f6e9d076e00fc55a46cf174a74f620df30d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 55c | 346.08$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.97 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 333.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 253.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 238.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 224.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 194.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 193.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 185.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 145.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 138.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 47c | 127.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 123.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 116.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 52c | 112.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 109.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 106.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 97.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 28c | 94.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 40c | 94.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 62c | 92.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 87.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 49c | 76.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 30c | 74.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 15c | 73.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 26c | 69.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 65.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 65.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 60.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 55.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 53c | 52.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 43c | 50.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 49.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 51c | 45.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 47c | 40.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 79c | 39.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 48c | 39.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 35c | 39.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 54c | 39.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 27c | 39.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 69c | 39.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 38.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 61c | 36.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 49c | 33.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 47c | 29.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes | 46c | 29.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…ec0abacked Yes | 53c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 78c | 27.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 44c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…3cedbacked Yes | 43c | 26.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 53c | 26.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 52c | 26.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 48c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 47c | 25.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 46c | 24.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…994dbacked Yes | 43c | 23.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…8b68backed No | 53c | 19.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 58c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…be32backed Yes | 76c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 69c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 57c | 18.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.