Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa670073784879e303172465bc9b2412200fbd7635a56e9ba41708345d14afa58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,691$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 13c | 981.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…ec0abacked Yes | 65c | 231.71$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 226.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 222.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 51c | 222.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 215.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 215.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 203.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 203.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 180.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 153.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 149.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 31c | 132.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 115.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 23c | 113.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked No | 69c | 101.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed No | 63c | 100.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 36c | 92.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 85.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 40c | 80.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 79.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 24c | 72.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 72.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 67.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 65.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 22c | 63.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 45c | 62.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 23c | 59.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 70c | 55.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 23c | 51.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 26c | 50.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…bd5dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 75c | 47.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 33c | 42.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 63c | 40.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 56c | 34.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 32.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 80c | 30.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 20.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.