NFL · resolved market
Will the Patriots draft Will Campbell?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x525d7b9db820c6c4ab45b25af32feb5e5ae291d9d19d0e11cdab8797e31163a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 78c | 615.43$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.39 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…8bd5backed Yes | 25c | 500$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 9c | 410$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 71c | 380$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 67c | 266.32$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed No | 29c | 230$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 7c | 153$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 74c | 147.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…c85ebacked No | 15c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c6…d61cbacked No | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 40.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…e91abacked Yes | 79c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 35c | 30.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Patriots draft Will Campbell?this page
- Will the Patriots draft Abdul Carter?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Kelvin Banks Jr.?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Mason Graham?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Mykel Williams?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Shedeur Sanders?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Tetairoa McMillan?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.