Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52796d2c25442717135f7ec3e39405f6ac0292adcb2f0fb758d7f8d0a09d7108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,204 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Zverev | 52c | 1,733$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Tiafoe | 54c | 1,481$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tiafoe | 20c | 865.87$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.17 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Zverev | 72c | 691.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 69c | 674.51$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Tiafoe | 45c | 663.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…f7ddbacked Tiafoe | 54c | 472.78$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Zverev | 46c | 442.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiafoe | 48c | 411.26$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Tiafoe | 58c | 343.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Zverev | 46c | 275$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Zverev | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Tiafoe | 53c | 186.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Zverev | 72c | 139.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Zverev | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zverev | 51c | 83.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tiafoe | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bd…1f9cbacked Zverev | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…2c44backed Tiafoe | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Zverev | 66c | 67.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Zverev | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Tiafoe | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Tiafoe | 50c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Tiafoe | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zverev | 46c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Zverev | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Zverev | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Zverev | 66c | 26.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Zverev | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs ZverevZverev won
- Tiafoe vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Zverev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.