NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52cda8276ff68341c78636dc4c7b403594b998519f22b98e102b13499f115af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Oilers | 42c | 965.2$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.82 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken | 58c | 780.94$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.94 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kraken | 2c | 508.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 72c | 448.85$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Kraken | 58c | 222.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 72c | 172.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Oilers | 41c | 170.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Kraken | 37c | 143.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Oilers | 57c | 136.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 56c | 99.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Kraken | 43c | 85.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers | 46c | 78.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Oilers | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kraken | 60c | 62.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Kraken | 59c | 58.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Kraken | 59c | 58.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Oilers | 41c | 56.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Oilers | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…e8ccbacked Kraken | 60c | 49.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Oilers | 42c | 43.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Oilers | 64c | 39.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Kraken | 59c | 18.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7c98backed Oilers | 61c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. OilersOilers won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.