NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75bdbcafcac9b0062b02eafd7c2a34ebe36bdb47bebc4c8f047a4830a8ea53e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…ed5ebacked Over | 45c | 3,320$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 1,614$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 55c | 867.63$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.43 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 52c | 674.36$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.48 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 314.37$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 204.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 64c | 183$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…c587backed Under | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 55c | 69.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 63c | 29.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e19…52bbbacked Under | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 71c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…5886backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5this page
- Kraken vs. OilersOilers won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.