MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e8269c6f8041d18812b0ccd6fbf7f88bb2055d0c29859b6e309fb51404ecf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 19,251$10,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,713.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 7,853$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,391.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 6,228$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 43c | 2,124$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.84 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 1,489$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.11 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Under | 1c | 1,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 49c | 360.36$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.79 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 52c | 313.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 65c | 237.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 62c | 160.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 65c | 119.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 39c | 114.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 29c | 106$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 96.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Over | 49c | 75.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 49c | 75.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 48.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 47.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Over | 44c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 49c | 31.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 26.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 47c | 22.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.