MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404e67e73a4f073e955d22ca08aec4a5248f09a8212d1217702638c21dc25e0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 5,107$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 2,398$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 1,756$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,665$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 59c | 855.78$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.09 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 60c | 806$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 678$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 58c | 640$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.2 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 78c | 580$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 375.76$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 261.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 242$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 229.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 202.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 153.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 124.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 22c | 97.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 61c | 96.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 58c | 80.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 20c | 73.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 74c | 67.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 61.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 42c | 54.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 42.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 39.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 34.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 39c | 29.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…68f9backed Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.