Olympics · resolved market
Will Merle Fraibel (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53096cd4ef5189677b7b0e121c94d7dfaa3ac502f11550ac2d9080467e04e9c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 41c | 333.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 209.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 26c | 192.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 34c | 129.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 32c | 107.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…d051backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…b10abacked Yes | 29c | 99.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 70c | 41.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 66c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Merle Fraibel (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Julia Taubitz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.