Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530971cc65696b7d64ca7e108b0d7b17b4f2c8f340b2c987ba132d31f6158a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 29c | 499.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…7b1dbacked Yes | 67c | 351.29$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 67c | 298.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 43c | 269.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 62c | 178.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 70c | 156$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…1c7ebacked Yes | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 46c | 138.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 33c | 122.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e0…a1fbbacked No | 36c | 75.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 24c | 72.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 31c | 66.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…5e5dbacked No | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 33c | 39.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…9a06backed No | 70c | 28.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…a223backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.