Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5314a1ddecee7e8ce5e6f83ecd61d7f49f28e3e61d597939716e2164ff823bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Yellow Submarine, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 1,334$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.02 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 841.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yellow Submarine | 58c | 549.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 501.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 501.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.46 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…3aeebacked Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 376$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 354.59$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.21 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 305.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 168.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 106.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 78.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 62.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205a…682abacked Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 61.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…6178backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 43.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yellow Submarine | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Yellow Submarine | 58c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 25.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.