Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfed648845c4e8075ae46a4f528ae9e890e9493ee42a5211b1a03a85612cfe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nemiga Gaming | 15c | 5,653$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.13 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yellow Submarine | 80c | 2,726$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.2 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 2,430$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 2,300$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.99 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 1,740$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 1,301$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.23 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 1,245$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 7c | 1,179$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 1,126$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Nemiga Gaming | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 944.58$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 859.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 794.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 740.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 7c | 644.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 15c | 614.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 575.1$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 571.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 565$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 549.93$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 538$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.12 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 460.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 429.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…7a8fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 386.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 383.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Yellow Submarine | 79c | 381.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Nemiga Gaming | 9c | 329$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 10c | 306.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 270.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 255.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 217.2$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 217$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 195.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 170.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 158.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…2fafbacked Yellow Submarine | 80c | 143.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 173 | 73.4%127 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 137.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 113.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 95.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yellow Submarine | 77c | 88.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 85.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…70b9backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…c40dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 78.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 78.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 77.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 75.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 72.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 69.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 59.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…d34bbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 40.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c5…30f9backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…ebfdbacked Yellow Submarine | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.