Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531ddfd8bd43d7b2b5dd2d6a86c0c329ace75c8b5e4b540dc3ca6f27639bbf5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 2,526$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.19 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 56c | 1,781$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.57 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 1,355$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.93 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Under | 80c | 1,071$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 460.15$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 56c | 355.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 4c | 333.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 15c | 299.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 245.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 13c | 206.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 18c | 138.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 22c | 120.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 27c | 100.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 23c | 87.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Under | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.