Tennis · resolved market
Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5333696741d8545bfc2d219dc14eb00feba18b499992988de8f3f67461344056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 70c | 2,993$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.97 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 2,729$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.05 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 31c | 676.53$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 69c | 593.48$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.17 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 17c | 485.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b20…e938backed Over | 68c | 289.35$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 31c | 134.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Under | 28c | 75.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 31.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 176 | 62.5%110 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Over | 68c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.