Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d2381e988c48a2ba3f48412aa081a1c280abef8a0872fca47103fecbac1bf03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Sinner | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sinner | 71c | 1,381$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.06 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 29c | 1,309$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.22 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Sinner | 70c | 1,308$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.51 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 1,214$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.54 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Auger-Aliassime | 29c | 990.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Auger-Aliassime | 19c | 934.55$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…0518backed Auger-Aliassime | 23c | 919.9$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Sinner | 80c | 899.98$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 29c | 854.05$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.67 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Sinner | 67c | 499.97$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7f10backed Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 441.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Sinner | 68c | 417.19$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 391.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Auger-Aliassime | 34c | 366.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Sinner | 69c | 357.37$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Auger-Aliassime | 30c | 330.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Sinner | 80c | 310.18$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Sinner | 70c | 264.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 28c | 240.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Sinner | 70c | 236.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 227.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…5ce3backed Auger-Aliassime | 20c | 227.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Sinner | 68c | 217.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Auger-Aliassime | 27c | 209.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Auger-Aliassime | 19c | 182.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 220 | 20%44 W · 176 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Sinner | 67c | 172.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Sinner | 64c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Sinner | 70c | 140.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Sinner | 72c | 136.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sinner | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 27c | 122.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…ad3dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 23c | 95.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…668bbacked Sinner | 72c | 92.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Auger-Aliassime | 28c | 83.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Auger-Aliassime | 26c | 82.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1b…67d3backed Sinner | 73c | 74.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Auger-Aliassime | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 69.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sinner | 72c | 58.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Sinner | 66c | 57.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Sinner | 70c | 50.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Auger-Aliassime | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Sinner | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Auger-Aliassime | 29c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Sinner | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Sinner | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Sinner | 71c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…d3e7backed Sinner | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Sinner | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Sinner | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Sinner | 71c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…36b2backed Sinner | 70c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Sinner | 71c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.