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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd394…7e90backed Yes4c277.46$11 inLost-$11.35649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c213.75$49 inLost-$49.1610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes6c185.47$11 inLost-$10.6318319.7%36 W · 147 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No79c150.65$120 inWon+$31.0235283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa600…19c4backed Yes9c150$14 inLost-$14.131442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c127.42$100 inWon+$27.822,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes35c111$39 inLost-$38.861,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes71c100$71 inLost-$71.430032%96 W · 204 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes12c96.25$11 inLost-$11.27726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes35c84.98$29 inLost-$29.351,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c59$27 inLost-$26.872,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes23c58.84$14 inLost-$13.5360032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c58.71$45 inWon+$13.7110,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes43c52.7$23 inLost-$22.6981124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes52c42.99$22 inLost-$22.2610640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost-$13.316,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No76c29.99$23 inWon+$7.22,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c29.81$15 inWon+$14.94,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No57c27.84$16 inWon+$12.0949363.5%313 W · 180 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.9717058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes47c24.6$12 inLost-$11.6792329.1%269 W · 654 L+0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked No68c20$14 inWon+$6.518076.1%137 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.4846736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe694…2fd9backed Yes62c17.38$11 inLost-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.