Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd570467681f28301f9d5017ea9910205a3f036770fc351070acc8dcb4919a287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 472.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 70c | 417$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.21 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 315.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.98 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 34c | 301.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 33c | 240.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 29c | 235.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.05 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 67c | 233.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 148.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 147.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 31c | 143.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 71c | 140.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 133$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 126.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 119.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 34c | 109.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…5204backed No | 71c | 97.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 97.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 81.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 75c | 66.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 64.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 70c | 56.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 41c | 55.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 53.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 29c | 52.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 29c | 52.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 51.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 46.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 42.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked No | 71c | 40.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 71c | 40.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 42c | 38.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 34.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 51c | 34.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 32.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 31.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 64c | 30.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 28.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 27.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 27.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 69c | 27.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 73c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 235 | 46.4%109 W · 126 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.