Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf09746b72d155020a9e25827acbb600f2113832e7d2e4e7fcca81399adb281ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 58c | 369.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.89 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 3c | 369.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 256.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 251.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 12c | 244$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 235.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 51c | 197.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 17c | 160.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 158.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 27c | 152.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 48c | 144$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 77c | 129.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 116.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 24c | 77.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 71.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 16c | 70.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 42c | 66.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 48c | 63.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 51.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 40.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 73c | 38.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 136 | 64%87 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 37.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 28.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 28.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 28.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 27.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.