Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5356820b7bc05a429d10225bd1af6a408dd1733b647daceca41ff51d7a253d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 26c | 2,807$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.12 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 1,291$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.22 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…abb5backed No | 75c | 1,019$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 73c | 696.44$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 26c | 507.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.28 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 170 | 62.4%106 W · 64 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 77c | 301.89$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 26c | 275$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 74c | 260$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 74c | 260$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 73c | 240$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 115.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 24c | 72.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 23c | 71.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 74c | 65.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 26c | 64.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 71c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC leading at halftime?this page
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC leading at halftime?No won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.