World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536cd2eecf8281109b23568b90f55ea51d493595bec46bdc3cfec9963539c6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 1,480$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 13c | 507.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 4c | 429.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 12c | 343.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 10c | 261.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 209.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 174.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 13c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 165.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 7c | 159.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 16c | 152.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 139.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 115.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 107.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 18c | 105.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 102.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 83.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 54.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 79c | 53.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 73c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.