World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c52443679467a1f27533af61e0e8d1bd6acf09152bd31e5c62a40a97770bff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.26 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 30c | 933.96$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.31 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 521.67$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 491.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 15c | 484.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 36c | 453.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 71c | 429.18$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 394.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 358.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.27 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 72c | 345.77$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 31c | 324.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 297.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 272.87$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 193$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 185.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 177.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 69c | 176.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 68c | 175.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 172.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 141.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 71c | 121.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 111.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 21c | 110.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 105.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…f204backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 46c | 99.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 98.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 30c | 97.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 30c | 96.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 94.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 84.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 81.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 28c | 78.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 26c | 74.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 74.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 67c | 73.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 27c | 73.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 40c | 73.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 72.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 61.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 76c | 61.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 60.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 26c | 58.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 56.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 55.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 54.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 53.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 52.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 36c | 52.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 34c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 50.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 47.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 45.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 66c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 34c | 43.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 76c | 43.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 41c | 38.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 35.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 34c | 34.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 73c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 30.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 29.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…6b53backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 71c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.