MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5379f4f813cf031cc350473470a86667493fd9a34e6d5059a12a87eb144985d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 10,955$7,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,214.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 7,007$4,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.4 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 35c | 5,600$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.86 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 3,118$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.43 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 1,995$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.14 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 64c | 769$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.84 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 508.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.74 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Under | 41c | 466.66$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.28 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 319 | 54.2%173 W · 146 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 64c | 233.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 71c | 232.72$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 64c | 217$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 65c | 158.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 64c | 112.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 56c | 87.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 574 | 46.9%269 W · 305 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 65c | 83.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 48c | 80.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 64c | 70.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 60c | 35.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…7945backed Over | 64c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 37c | 32.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 28.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 44c | 28.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337a…b913backed Over | 65c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 65c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 20.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 58c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.