MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305ba3b028efd4d71767f212f868ff13f48eeaf709003e214ff17f7fa30578a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 60c | 17,084$10,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,250.36 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 11,712$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,023.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 41c | 2,048$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 1,621$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 1,486$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.87 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 1,003$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 469.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 38c | 388$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 42c | 287.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 57c | 285.12$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 269.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 262.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 170$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 103.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 73c | 99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 55c | 98.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…e6c9backed Under | 77c | 80.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 67cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 74.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 64.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 40c | 46.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 41c | 44.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 38.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.