Champions League · resolved market
Will Monaco win on 2025-10-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537cf889dac7affc82b94267accb276788208676bafcbf9f066f1bb1b911494e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 13c | 100,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 12c | 5,900$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.19 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 5,039$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.87 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 11c | 3,928$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.76 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 3c | 2,760$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…4464backed Yes | 13c | 1,360$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 13c | 1,213$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 11c | 1,107$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 15c | 867$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 600.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 13c | 549.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 13c | 531$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…4d95backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 420.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 10c | 382.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 339.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 13c | 277.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…af8abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a44…3fd2backed Yes | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0e6bbacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…ec3abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 16c | 119.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…2489backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1062backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monaco win on 2025-10-01?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01?No won
- Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.