Champions League · resolved market
Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbe64fe4976a489e0f3b9f2d172b2ab7617e876bcad85db6b30d98b9d8ea59f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.99 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 19c | 2,199$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.19 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 15c | 2,096$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.23 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 78c | 1,012$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.9 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 13c | 990.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 904.23$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 65c | 830.09$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 18c | 702.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.16 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 14c | 554.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 30c | 473.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 17c | 359.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.33 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 314.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.56 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 18c | 250.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.15 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 47c | 224$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 12c | 200.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 73c | 143.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 48c | 137$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 116.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 35c | 112.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 14c | 107.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01?No won
- Will Monaco win on 2025-10-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.