Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x538ac06747b1356fc1738f000a57196d281d4f042f48b277f948c122029a7190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bf…6d50backed Yes | 22c | 5,462$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…2975backed Yes | 22c | 4,545$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…3e91backed No | 78c | 3,590$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 36c | 2,742$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.59 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486d…3d63backed No | 78c | 2,563$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 72c | 2,070$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.93 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e9…d6afbacked No | 78c | 1,925$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e3…8476backed No | 78c | 1,922$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 1,800$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 1,363$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.51 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 21c | 1,119$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 980.93$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.33 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 558.48$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 76c | 499.98$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 414$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 350.47$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…83fcbacked Yes | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 78c | 259.75$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 78c | 205$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba91…ccdbbacked Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…d637backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…a2bcbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.