Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2123219f0e7a5a32cb88eef37ec0ac0aad31e5b4874edfeffe48fc43df651e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 16c | 4,050$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 16c | 2,574$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.84 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Yes | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 1,537$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.33 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 17c | 1,141$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 13c | 833.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 16c | 809.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 17c | 750$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 15c | 650.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 14c | 623.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 400.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 303.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 15c | 226.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x534c…82ddbacked Yes | 16c | 216.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…aaaabacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…4221backed Yes | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 182.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 15c | 129.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 109.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…3fc8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 15c | 99.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…cad3backed Yes | 19c | 79.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…69aebacked Yes | 17c | 77.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 16c | 66.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…c574backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.