Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53aba8bb95d2838e045f2b7914244e5cf3f586853cf283a60e643eaae1623c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 1,424$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.64 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,066$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.57 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 978.62$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 64c | 336.72$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 33c | 290.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 244.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 45c | 226.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 56c | 157.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 136.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 19c | 131.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 126.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 48c | 111.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 82.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 79.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 55c | 75.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 48c | 60.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 56.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 52c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 43.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 44c | 31.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…e71abacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…437fbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…b091backed Under | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…f838backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…0deabacked Over | 53c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…2fc5backed Over | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe686…f90dbacked Over | 54c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81f…034fbacked Over | 54c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…6ddabacked Over | 54c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…109fbacked Over | 54c | 20.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…2810backed Over | 54c | 18.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4841…5c35backed Over | 54c | 18.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.