Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53bf64aa4a24fbe2f0e9b65cf1d6e6644098bedddddc9c5ba7c2a4a319357a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc274…f637backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 22c | 503.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 356.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 25c | 176.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 176.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 69c | 150.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 123.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 33c | 114.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbe…b19bbacked Yes | 43c | 92.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked No | 62c | 88.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 76c | 78.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 69.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 37c | 54.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 77c | 52.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 33c | 49.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 47.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 46.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 34c | 34.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a6…a0c3backed Yes | 35c | 32.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 77c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or higher on January 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.