Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5dc9a5c5199161cd17ced7e9ed9e42f67737885a90dd7ae4ff3224433db0be0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac56…22edbacked No | 0c | 17,270$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…111ebacked No | 1c | 6,550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 74c | 2,431$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.48 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 2c | 972.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 788.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.86 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 21c | 694.12$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.31 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 406.54$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 16c | 403.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.28 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 18c | 299.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 237.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 208.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 169.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 145.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9b…9b74backed Yes | 34c | 138.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 126.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 120.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 18c | 105.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cad…93f5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 65c | 83.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 62c | 81.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe789…8cf7backed Yes | 40c | 67.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 50c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3caa…9706backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 52c | 40.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 74c | 23.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or higher on January 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.