Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53c31982cee8b635315a472bc94575dc4c3b202a77a0ec0e8c041a939a8b3c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 15c | 790.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 383.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 312.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 231.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 224.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 199.9$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 166.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 10c | 163.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 156.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 28c | 155.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 101.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 92.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 87.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 22c | 86.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 83.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 75.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 67.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 58.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 23c | 53.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 22c | 52.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 77c | 45.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 78c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 22.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 78c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.