Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddfc2adfc318eba741d6136dd74c4dae7e4583cae24673c7295652e97821757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd375…af86backed No | 0c | 9,328$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 1c | 1,765$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 4c | 997.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 988.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 5c | 979.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 36c | 727.9$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.12 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 2c | 692.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 7c | 608.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 433.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 14c | 432.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.1 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 19c | 279$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 53c | 225.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 211.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 208.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 67c | 187.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 6c | 173.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 166.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 10c | 151.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 147.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 12c | 144.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 136.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 129.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…dc1ebacked Yes | 16c | 120.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 39c | 120.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 10c | 112.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 38c | 99.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…12a8backed Yes | 14c | 99.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 79.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 78.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 24c | 73.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 18c | 64.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 33c | 38.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 28.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…4097backed No | 41c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.