Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x581de8076fb4a0ad49cdaaf2257dedb22bb0e2126f29d47b3735c872d535d284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 79c | 1,055$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 78c | 940.4$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.45 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 874.24$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 801.5$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 23c | 699.34$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 16c | 581.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 531.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 18c | 440.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 391.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 5c | 388.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 358.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 22c | 313.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 24c | 303.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 301.8$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 66c | 285.42$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed67…c92dbacked No | 80c | 244.76$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 232.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 198.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 20c | 194.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 75c | 175.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 79c | 157.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 147.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 23c | 143.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ed…bf70backed No | 80c | 136.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 133.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 130.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 129.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 22c | 115.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 64c | 114.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 18c | 106.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 70c | 106.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 61c | 100.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 96.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 93.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 89.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…d63ebacked Yes | 19c | 79.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 78.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 42c | 77.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 21c | 76.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 72.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed Yes | 20c | 68.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 20c | 63.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 59c | 54.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked No | 38c | 54.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 40c | 52.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 25c | 49.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 46c | 48.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 79c | 48.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 48.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e7cfbacked No | 73c | 47.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes | 25c | 46.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 73c | 41.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 34c | 40.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 33.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 33.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 33.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9ea8backed Yes | 41c | 30.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed No | 76c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked No | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 80c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed No | 74c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.