NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ce5cdbf3b0907343013ac127ec746686e3bace12233a6da34a756a73b6c9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Devils, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Devils | 56c | 5,620$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.12 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Sharks | 43c | 3,326$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.97 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Sharks | 45c | 2,257$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.67 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 43c | 1,744$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Devils | 56c | 1,041$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.86 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Devils | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sharks | 60c | 527$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.86 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Sharks | 42c | 442.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.88 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…e721backed Sharks | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d9…e01fbacked Devils | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Sharks | 44c | 248$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Devils | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Devils | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Devils | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…3f65backed Devils | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Devils | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Devils | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Devils | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…8e11backed Devils | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Devils | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Devils | 57c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Devils | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…96a0backed Devils | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Devils | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…8728backed Devils | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. DevilsDevils won
- Sharks vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-2.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.